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This should really be at the top of today's blog:

Here's a free heads-up for national political analysts -- George Bush's re-election will likely turn on the state of the economy. And the national economy is in trouble only if you include California. Take California out of the equation, and the national economy is in pretty good shape. For example, in June, unemployment totals were down nationally -- if you excluded California. They were up if you included California. This month, nearly half of all job losses in the country were California jobs.

So Bush's re-election very likely will turn on what happens in the California economy -- and that very likely will depend on whether or not Arnold Schwarzenegger replaces Gray Davis in the Sacramento governor's office.