PRESTOPUNDIT -- "An intense brain-buzz, guaranteed" (2blowhards)

The NY Times California recall page has a helpful "flash" graphic called "Inside the Recall" with county-by-county population and 2002 voting stats. The map makes it clear that Davis has been the chosen governor of one-third of the state -- essentially Los Angeles and the Bay Area. In the 2003 recall fight the key battleground has been Los Angeles County -- Davis is struggling to retain overwhelming margins in his hometown, and he's been in Los Angeles constantly throughout the recall battle. But his firm grip on the county has slipped badly -- despite well publicized support efforts from the county's dominant newspaper. And the difference this time seems to have been all of those commuters on endless miles of LA freeway -- listening to the relentless air-war against Gray Davis on the radio. I have no doubt the average KFI listener in Los Angeles could tell you more about the California budget and current legislation coming out of Sacramento than could half-a-dozen hacks picked at random from the LA Times. And they would be more passionate about it. In the contest between the ground-war of the Davis-supporting LA Times, and the air-war of the radio news-talk stations, the ground-war hasn't stood a chance.

On election night perhaps the central stat to keep track of will be the Davis "no on recall" margins in Los Angeles county. If all those folks in all of those cars make it to the polls, look for "shock and awe" from the ballot box as the returns roll in -- and modern talk-radio air-warriors blow apart the LA Times ground-war in the battle for the hearts and minds of LA County voters.

And then the next thing to do is to take a look in the outlying anti-Davis counties -- San Bernardino, Ventura, Kern, Riverside, and Orange. What you should see here -- if the "shock and awe" air war has indeed done its job -- are near landslide "yes on recall" numbers. These are all areas where the gray ground-war monopoly has battled and retreated in the contest for dominant market share. And these are the sore-butt counties of Southern California -- the air-warrior home ground of the California recall movement. When the national press reports the California eathquake tomorrow night, that earthquake will have its ground zero literally up and down the San Andreas fault -- stretching from Kern County just north of Los Angeles, down to Riverside and San Diego Counties, east and south of LA. That eathquake is going to shake the political establishment of California down to its foundations -- and with it the editorial rooms in just about every major city in the state.

UPDATE: Andrew Sullivan hears the rumbling and senses a tectonic plate shift in the political culture of the nation .. oh, and Sullivan thinks Mickey Kaus is a wuss.

UPDATE: Calblog is hosting an election party. Drop in on the fun.

UPDATE: They're taking California recall election predictions at NRO's The Corner.

UPDATE: Roger Simon is doing it for the first time.