Going Up -- Grant on interest rates.
"Interest rates will be rising for the next quarter-century. You can look it up. Cycles in the bond market are famously long-trending. In the U.S. yields fell for the last 40 years of the 19th century. They rose for the first 20 years of the 20th century. They fell between 1920 and 1946, then started up again. They peaked in 1981 and fell for the next 22 years, i.e., until June 13, 2003, when the yield on the ten-year Treasury note slid to a meager 3.1%.
Now the yield is back up to 4.7%. You would perhaps like to know where it will be next week, on Labor Day or at the close of business on New Year's Eve. The truth is that I don't know. Nevertheless, I do believe I know where rates are going over the next generation: They're going up .. ".
MORE "Why Rates Will Go Up" by James Grant.
Posted by Greg Ransom
